The demand for natural gas-fired power in the United States has dramatically increased over the past two years, driven primarily by the rapid expansion of data centers. New research reveals that over one-third of this growth is directly linked to gas projects designed specifically to power these facilities – enough energy to power tens of millions of American homes. This surge coincides with a rollback in environmental regulations under the Trump administration, raising serious concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and methane leaks.
Exponential Growth in Demand
The findings, from Global Energy Monitor, show an almost tripling of gas-fired power demand in just two years. In early 2024, approximately 4 gigawatts of planned gas power capacity were earmarked for data centers. By 2025, that figure jumped to over 97 gigawatts—a 25-fold increase. The US currently has 565 gigawatts of gas-fired power capacity. If all projects in the pipeline are realized, this would add nearly 252 gigawatts to the grid, an almost 50% expansion.
This isn’t just about building new plants; utilities are scrambling to meet demand, even extending the lifespan of aging coal-fired plants with the help of recently loosened regulations. While natural gas is cleaner than coal, it still produces CO2, accounting for 35% of US energy-related emissions in 2022.
The Methane Problem
The bigger threat lies in methane leaks during extraction. Methane is far more potent than CO2 over the short term (80 times more effective at trapping heat over 20 years), and oil and gas production accounts for roughly one-third of global leaks. The US is the world’s largest natural gas producer, meaning this surge in demand comes at a critical time, as the Trump administration is also weakening regulations meant to prevent those leaks.
On-Site Power vs. Grid Connections
Data center developers are increasingly opting for on-site power generation, including gas turbines and solar arrays, due to years-long delays in connecting to existing grids. This makes securing power a competitive race, further inflating demand numbers.
However, not all announced projects will be built. Industry analysts note that some developers overstate demand to secure favorable terms with utilities. Efficiency improvements in data center construction and AI training may also reduce projected energy needs. A global shortage of gas turbines is another limiting factor – two-thirds of tracked projects lack confirmed turbine suppliers.
What’s Next?
Even with these uncertainties, the pipeline includes almost 30 gigawatts under construction and another 159 in pre-construction. The expansion of AI ensures continued demand for these facilities, making mitigation efforts crucial. The question now is how to minimize the impact of this surge, given current regulatory trends and the growing energy needs of the tech industry.
The long-term implications are clear: the data center boom is inextricably linked to a significant increase in US fossil fuel dependence, with potentially severe consequences for climate goals.
